What will happen to the world economy?

In May, the Center for the New Economy and Society (Center for the New Economy and Society) of the World Economic Forum released a report on the state of the world economy and a forecast for the future. The report is based on a survey of economists from the IMF, EBRD, UN, banks, large corporations, fund and financial structures. Here are some results that also apply to Ukraine:
 

• There is no consensus in the world regarding the prospects of the global economy. 45% of respondents believe that the probability of a recession is high. They say as much that there will be no recession. 9% were undecided.
  64% of respondents agree and 12% strongly agree that “the cost of living will remain at a crisis level in many countries.” Only 9% are confident that the cost of living crisis will end.
• There are no respondents among those who believe that inflation in Europe in 2023 will be very low and low. Instead, 84% believe that it will be high, 6% – very high.
• 69% of surveyed economists believe that bank failures are isolated cases and not a systemic vulnerability. 31% of respondents see a systemic vulnerability.
• Strengthening of industrial policy is expected in the next three years. 91% of economists believe that this will lead to deepening of geopolitical tension and suppression of competition (70%).
• Industrial policy or active state interventionism in the economy will become a popular approach to economic policy throughout the world. 74% of respondents think so. Only 13% consider such a turn unlikely.
• 70% of respondents predict that the active role of the state in industrial policy will lead to “suffocation” of competition, 68% – to an increase in public debt, 63% – to a change in the structure of economic processes.

 
In the next post, we will consider what conclusions Ukraine can draw from these data.