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The revised estimate was published by the Ministry of Economy.
The 29.2% year-over-year drop is the worst in Ukraine’s post-independence history, but the result is still better than most experts expected at the start of the full-scale invasion. At that time, estimates ranged from a 40-50% fall in GDP or more.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy noted that due to negative trends, the economy still cannot start recovery. Among them is depressed household consumption and a drop in investment activity.
According to the Ministry’s forecast, Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 1% in 2023. The previous forecast (3.2%) was worsened due to the assumption that hostilities will not end in the middle of the year, but will last “almost a whole year”.
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