How long will the post-war recovery of Ukraine last?

Only 29% of economies recover to pre-war GDP levels within five years. What does this mean for Ukraine?

Інститут Економічного Лідерства

In order for Ukraine to recover within five years, its economy must grow by 14% per year throughout this period. This will increase the average GDP to 225 billion dollars. with approximately 150 billion dollars. in 2022.

 

However, according to the EBRD report, rapid post-conflict recovery is not the norm – most post-war economies do not recover to pre-war levels of per capita income, even in the long term.
 
The main common feature of periods of sustained extremely high economic growth is a high investment-to-GDP ratio. In the case of Ukraine, the five-year period of the country’s post-war recovery will require additional investments in the amount of about 50 billion dollars. for a year.
 
As the EBRD notes, in order to attract these investments, Ukraine needs to increase its capacity to develop them, as well as improve the management structure necessary for the development of complex projects and the conclusion of contracts.
 
In addition, establishing the rule of law and increasing the level of economic freedom are critical. Without this, no investors will come to Ukraine.

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